Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.399031 3.262832 4.483647 6.395709 9.434059e+00 1.430163e+01 2.321181e+01
2025-03-23 1.572373 2.453734 3.952560 6.895366 1.312267e+01 2.746338e+01 7.062885e+01
2025-03-30 1.097736 1.907496 3.508404 7.344630 1.807826e+01 5.516302e+01 2.777336e+02
2025-04-06 0.746528 1.402240 2.853294 6.931172 2.151162e+01 9.752932e+01 1.258603e+03
2025-04-13 0.518345 1.033293 2.278178 6.269748 2.405871e+01 1.664071e+02 9.461888e+03
2025-04-20 0.403387 0.856976 2.065212 6.576908 3.312503e+01 4.405350e+02 9.623609e+06
2025-04-27 0.334131 0.756843 2.001716 7.495729 5.289769e+01 2.060788e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 0.283588 0.681899 1.973280 8.729650 9.141896e+01 2.571273e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 0.236144 0.594687 1.849247 9.420580 1.444016e+02 3.166431e+06 NaN
2025-05-18 0.190478 0.493961 1.609481 9.022253 1.845184e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.152988 0.404685 1.361590 8.167068 2.084114e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.132668 0.362828 1.289582 8.717686 3.430119e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.114453 0.323087 1.211103 9.240656 6.028389e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.101146 0.295322 1.173059 10.273047 1.330963e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.089529 0.269287 1.126849 11.235405 3.234360e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.076576 0.233745 1.004097 10.710480 5.074619e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.065125 0.200492 0.874514 9.709661 6.409243e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.058566 0.184343 0.837073 10.354708 2.007486e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.054299 0.175919 0.842511 12.100482 2.309104e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.050800 0.169461 0.857456 14.484153 4.815382e+08 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.046640 0.158764 0.835070 15.899224 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.041628 0.142810 0.762511 15.225577 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.036790 0.126422 0.677202 13.663284 NaN NaN NaN